INTEL 719

To calculate the percentage of a society in the European Union (EU) that is not composed of 12-28 year-old men, we’ll follow this basic approach:

1. Determine the total population of the EU.
2. Estimate the percentage of 12-28 year-old men in the population.
3. Subtract this percentage from 100% to get the percentage of the population that is not 12-28 year-old men.

1. EU Total Population:

As of 2023, the total population of the European Union is estimated to be around 447 million people.

2. Estimating the Population of 12-28 Year-Old Men:

• The EU’s population is roughly split 50% male and 50% female.
• 12-28 year-olds represent an age range of 16 years. According to general EU demographic data, approximately 17-20% of the population is aged 12-28 (both men and women combined). Since about half of these are men, we can estimate:
• 12-28 year-old men represent about 8.5-10% of the total population.

3. Calculation of the Percentage Not Composed of 12-28 Year-Old Men:

• If 12-28 year-old men make up about 8.5-10% of the population, then the percentage of the EU population that is not 12-28 year-old men is approximately:

Conclusion:

About 90-91.5% of the population in the European Union is not composed of 12-28 year-old men.

The idea that 3.5% of the population is a critical mass for successful nonviolent regime change comes from research, particularly by political scientist Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan. Their groundbreaking study, published in the book “Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict” (2011), analyzed hundreds of movements from 1900 to 2006. They found that no government had withstood a challenge if 3.5% of the population engaged in sustained, nonviolent protests. This statistic has been widely cited as the “3.5% rule.”

Key Points of the 3.5% Rule:

• The 3.5% figure represents the critical mass of active participation needed for nonviolent movements to achieve regime change or significant political transformation.
• The study demonstrated that nonviolent movements were more successful than violent uprisings. Nonviolent campaigns had a success rate of about 53%, compared to 26% for violent ones.
• These movements included peaceful protests, strikes, boycotts, and civil disobedience, often sustained over time.

Other Perspectives or Studies:

While the 3.5% figure has gained attention, it’s important to note that this is not a universally accepted threshold across all contexts. Other factors can influence whether a nonviolent movement is successful, including:

1. Regime Type: Some studies argue that authoritarian regimes with strong military control may require more participants or different tactics to successfully challenge.
2. International Support: External factors, like international support or sanctions, can sometimes play a key role in tipping the balance toward a movement’s success.
3. Organizational Capacity: The effectiveness of leadership, strategic planning, and organizational structures within a movement can be as important as sheer numbers.
4. Community Size: Other research might focus on smaller community-based movements (outside regime change contexts), suggesting that smaller groups of highly motivated people can influence local or regional change without needing such a large percentage of participants.

Is 3.5% a Critical Size of a Community?

In other contexts, such as social movements or innovation diffusion, there are different theories about the critical mass required to create change:

• For example, Malcolm Gladwell’s “Tipping Point” discusses how smaller groups or influencers (often much less than 3.5%) can start cultural or behavioral shifts that spread more widely.

However, the 3.5% rule specifically pertains to large-scale, nonviolent political movements aimed at regime change, and it is the most prominent figure discussed in that particular context.