INTEL 1041

Military Intelligence Report: Developments of H5N1 Avian Influenza and Its Impact on Poultry and Human Health (2022–2025) 1. Overview Since 2022, the H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has caused significant outbreaks in poultry across the United States, leading to substantial economic and public health concerns. The virus…

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Military Intelligence Report: Developments of H5N1 Avian Influenza and Its Impact on Poultry and Human Health (2022–2025)

1. Overview

Since 2022, the H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has caused significant outbreaks in poultry across the United States, leading to substantial economic and public health concerns. The virus has also resulted in human infections, including the first reported death in 2024. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the developments, impact on poultry, and transmission to humans.

2. Impact on Poultry

Poultry Mortality: The H5N1 outbreak has led to the culling of over 130 million birds across all 50 states since its detection in February 2022. This mass depopulation aims to control the spread of the virus among poultry populations.
Economic Consequences: The significant loss of poultry has caused egg prices to surge, with costs nearing $10 per dozen in certain regions, such as Hawaii. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has allocated approximately $1.7 billion to manage and control the outbreak, marking it as the most expensive animal disease outbreak in U.S. history.

3. Transmission to Humans

Human Infections: Between 2022 and January 2025, the United States reported 66 confirmed human cases of H5N1 infection. The majority of these cases were linked to direct exposure to infected poultry or contaminated environments.
First Recorded Fatality: In December 2024, Louisiana reported the first human death attributed to H5N1 in the United States. The deceased individual had known exposure to sick birds.
CDC Recommendations: In response to the increasing human cases, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now advises that all hospitalized influenza patients be tested for H5N1 within 24 hours. This measure aims to facilitate prompt identification and management of infections.

4. Virus Evolution and Cross-Species Transmission

Infection in Mammals: Since 2022, H5N1 has been detected in over 200 mammalian cases in the U.S., including infections in dairy cattle. In 2024, the virus was identified in goats and cattle, indicating its ability to cross species barriers.
Human-to-Human Transmission: As of January 2025, there is no confirmed evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission of H5N1. Most human infections have been associated with direct contact with infected animals.

5. Public Health Measures and Preparedness

Vaccine Development: The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is investing $211 million to enhance mRNA platform capabilities for emerging infectious diseases. Moderna Inc. is leading efforts to develop an mRNA-based H5N1 vaccine, receiving $176 million for late-stage development.
Biosecurity Enhancements: The USDA has dedicated over 300 personnel and $1.5 billion to combat the virus among poultry and dairy cattle. Efforts include rebuilding a bird flu vaccine stockpile for poultry and coordinating with state partners on surveillance, reporting, and control measures.

6. Conclusion

The H5N1 avian influenza outbreak from 2022 to January 2025 has had profound impacts on the poultry industry and posed emerging threats to human health. While human cases remain relatively rare, the first recorded fatality underscores the need for continued vigilance. Ongoing surveillance, rapid diagnostic testing, vaccine development, and strict biosecurity measures are essential to mitigate the spread of H5N1 and protect both animal and human health.

7. Recommendations

Enhanced Surveillance: Maintain and strengthen surveillance systems to monitor H5N1 in poultry, wild birds, mammals, and humans.
Public Awareness: Educate the public, especially those in close contact with poultry, about preventive measures to reduce the risk of infection.
International Collaboration: Engage in global information sharing and collaborative efforts to address the transboundary nature of avian influenza.

8. References