TOP SECRET – MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
To: Joint Strategic Analysis Division (JSAD)
From: Eastern European Theater Intelligence Cell (EETIC)
Date: 26 May 2025
Subject: Emergent Anti-War Sabotage Factions in Ukraine and Russia – Strategic Assessment on “Warless End-State” Pathways
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report assesses a series of recent sabotage operations attributed to decentralized, anti-war factions operating within Ukraine and the Russian Federation. These entities aim to disrupt state-level mobilization infrastructures as a mechanism to pressure their respective governments into negotiating an end to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.
Key events include:
- Coordinated attacks on 12 Ukrainian military recruitment centers, reportedly executed by elderly civilians, resulting in significant operational disruption and loss of life.
- Installation of vehicle and tank traps across Moscow and key military corridors in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories, designed to slow or halt forced mobilization.
- Unverified claims of involvement by non-state actors framing the acts as resistance against perceived totalitarian conscription and state overreach.
The strategic implications of these developments suggest the possible emergence of an internal movement—not necessarily aligned with foreign intelligence services—that could induce “Warless Endless World” scenarios through civil disruption, delegitimization of war logistics, and internal factional fracture within both Kyiv and Moscow.
II. BACKGROUND & CONTEXT
Over the past six months, the war has reached a saturation point with:
- Over 1 million estimated Ukrainian casualties (civilian and military combined, including missing).
- Nearly 30 million displaced Ukrainians, primarily women and children, now forming a vast political diaspora across the EU, Turkey, and North America.
- Escalating reports of forced conscription and domestic surveillance measures in both Ukraine and Russia, leading to increasing civilian unrest.
The Zelensky administration, under prolonged martial law, continues to defer elections, citing existential wartime necessity. Meanwhile, the Russian government sustains a high-pressure mobilization campaign amid internal economic fragmentation and elite division.
III. OPERATIONS OF INTEREST
A. Ukrainian Recruitment Office Attacks (March–May 2025)
- 12 simultaneous or sequential bombings across Lviv, Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa regions.
- Claimed responsibility by a group self-identified as the “Grey Dove Mothers”, composed allegedly of grandmothers and relatives of conscripted and killed Ukrainian soldiers.
- Motivation: Prevent further loss of life, demand peace talks, and push for electoral restoration in Ukraine.
B. Anti-Mobilization Measures in Russia
- Multiple civilian-installed anti-tank barricades and car traps in urban centers (Moscow, St. Petersburg) and near military transit routes.
- Telegram channels associated with Russian anti-war groups (e.g., “Free Barricade”, “Sons of 1917”) claim responsibility.
- Objectives appear to include obstructing mass mobilization and signaling elite resistance to continued wartime policies.
IV. ANALYSIS: PATHWAYS TO A “WARLESS ENDLESS WORLD”
The concept, drawn from insurgent communications, suggests an envisioned post-war Europe where no state has the unchecked authority to enforce mass violence through conscription, and local resistance to militarism can effectively check centralized war-making powers.
Scenario Pathways:
- Structural Delegitimization of War Infrastructure
Persistent sabotage can make mobilization untenable, forcing a de-escalation due to operational paralysis. - Internal Factional Fracture
Both Kyiv and Moscow face internal political fragmentation. A tipping point may arise where anti-war military or intelligence elites support ceasefire or partition as a “least-worst” outcome. - Partition-for-Peace Framework
A scenario where a demilitarized buffer zone is established, possibly through UN/EU/Russian-Chinese brokered negotiations, facilitated by a breakdown of both military will and logistical capability. - Diaspora-Driven Democratic Pressure
The Ukrainian diaspora, numbering in the tens of millions, could soon become a transnational political bloc, leveraging their voice in host countries to demand a peace settlement and the resumption of Ukrainian democratic processes.
V. RISKS & INTELLIGENCE GAPS
- Attribution uncertainty: While claims have emerged from domestic civilian groups, there remains the possibility of false-flag operations or foreign manipulation.
- Escalation risk: Continued attacks may trigger harsher state crackdowns, including counter-terror legislation and further suspension of civil rights.
- Lack of political unification: The anti-war factions are currently disparate, lacking central coordination or an articulated peace plan.
VI. CONCLUSION
While the acts of sabotage are severe and controversial, they reflect a growing domestic fatigue with perpetual mobilization. The “Warless Endless World” is less an idealistic utopia and more a strategic vision shared by non-aligned actors seeking to end state-level war through disruptive non-compliance and resistance.
This movement, if it continues to gain traction and coordination, could structurally constrain both Ukrainian and Russian capacity for continued war, pressuring all factions to consider negotiated settlements—either through partition, armistice, or civil-led peace accords.
Further monitoring, HUMINT acquisition, and psychological profiling of the factions involved is highly recommended.
Distribution: JSAD, NATO Liaison, EUCOM, CIA/Eastern Europe Desk
Classification: TOP SECRET / EYES ONLY
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