INTEL 38 38 383 38 83-38C

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Analytical Brief: Transport Timeline Calculation

Subject: Estimated time required to move 2.1 million personnel by air under varying daily transport rates.

Purpose:
To estimate the number of transport cycles (“waves”) and the total time required to relocate 2,100,000 personnel assuming a daily airlift capacity ranging from 6,000 to 30,000 individuals per day.

Key Assumptions

• Total personnel to transport: 2,100,000
• Daily transport throughput ranges from:
  • Slow pace: 6,000 individuals/day
  • Moderate pace: 15,000 individuals/day
  • Maximum pace: 30,000 individuals/day
• Each “wave” represents one day of transport operations.

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Estimated Waves Required

Transport Pace	Personnel per Wave (Day)	Waves Required	Approximate Duration
Slow	6,000	350 waves	~350 days
Moderate	15,000	140 waves	~140 days
Maximum	30,000	70 waves	~70 days

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Observations

• Increasing daily throughput significantly reduces total duration.
• Moving from 6,000/day to 30,000/day reduces the timeline from ~350 days to ~70 days.
• Even at the highest rate, the movement would require multiple months of sustained transport activity.

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Summary

Transporting 2.1 million personnel by air would require:

• 70 waves at maximum throughput (30,000/day)
• 140 waves at moderate throughput (15,000/day)
• 350 waves at slow throughput (6,000/day)

Estimated total timeline ranges from ~70 days to ~350 days, depending on operational capacity.

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1. Approximate Chinese military transport fleet

Rough current estimates:

Aircraft type	Estimated number	Typical troop capacity
Y-20 heavy transport	~60	~66 troops
Il-76 heavy transport	~17	~140 troops
Y-9 medium transport	~120	~106 troops
Y-8 medium transport	~100	~90 troops
Light transports (Y-7, Y-12 etc.)	~100	~20–50 troops